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  • Methods: Python
  • Data Analysis: Scipy, Binom
  • Data Visualization: Matplotlib
  • Data Modeling: Binomial Distribution
  • Web Development: HTML, CSS

Estimating a Physician's Schedule using a Binomial Distribution

  • The objective of this project is to estimate the number of appointments a physician should schedule in order to maximize the number of patients given 25% of patients will not show up in a python jupyter notebook.
  • The exercise first considers a linear approach, followed by a binomial distribution in order to maximize the number of appointments. The number of patients that should be scheduled considers the physician can see a maximum of 30 patients per day and the probability that a patients will show up is 75%.
  

Results

This example calculates the ideal number of patient to schedule per day. It is assumed that the physician's workload is 30 patients per day. It is estimated that 25% of patients fail to show up to their appointments leading to loss of revenue for the physician.

-40.0 is the number of patients that should be scheduled (linear approach) assuming only 75% of patients will show up.

-A binomial distribution model uses historical data to assume 25% of patients do not show up for their appointments. The probability density function (binom.pmf()) is calculated similiar to a Cumulative Density Function a normal distribution. The pmf function creates a vector of pmf values.

-The plot distribution shows a binomial distribution centered at 30.

-The cumulative distribution function calculates that 0.4395 % of the time the the physician will be overbooked given linearPrediction = 40, workload = 30, and prob = 0.75.

-The binomial ppf() function is used to calculate that 34.0 appointments can be scheduled to limit the risk of having more than 30 appointments per day to 5%.


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