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  • Methods: Python
  • Data Analysis: Pandas, Numpy,
  • Data Visualization: Matplotlib, Seaborn
  • Data Modeling: Scikit-Learn, Logit
  • Web Development: HTML, CSS

FICO Credit Score Logistic Regression Model to Predict Loan Defaults

  • This project evaluates Loan Data by creating a Logistic Regression model to determine whether a customer will default on their loan based on their FICO credit score. The coding exercise is provided in the python jupyter notebook below.
  • A Logistic Regression model (Logit) is created on the training dataset and tested on the test dataset.
  • A Confusion Matrix is created to observe the performance of the model on the test dataframe (df_test). The confusion matrix examines predicted vs actual default values (will_default vs default).
  • The logistic regression model was determined to have an 82.8% accuracy of predicting whether a customer will default on their loan by using their FICO Credit Score.
  

Results

-The customer loan dataset consists of 9,516 rows and 7 columns. The seven columns are: default, installment, log_income, fico_score, rev_balance, inquiries, and records.

-Seventy percent of the loan data (training dataset) was used to create a logistic regression model to predict whether a customer would default on their loan based on their FICO credit score (fico_score). The model was tested on the test dataset (remaining 30% of total loan dataset) to understand the performance of the model.

-The logistic regression model outputs a new column, "will default" that contains the model's prediction of whether a customer will default on their loan on the test dataframe. The predicted probability threshold was set to 25% to predict whether the customer will default or not. The predicted probability threshold can be adjusted to optimize the model.

-Heat maps of the confusion matrix were created to understand the performance of the model.

-The logistic regression model was determined to have an 82.8% accuracy of predicting whether a customer will default on their loan by using their FICO Credit Score in the test dataset.


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